{ "schema_version": "1.0.0", "analysis_family": "general_eligible_arrest_records", "population_label": "Eligible source-scoped arrest-record IDs, all charge categories", "primary_period": { "start": "2021-01-01", "end": "2024-12-31" }, "primary_model": "primary_high_10f", "models": [ { "model": "primary_high_10f", "status": "ok", "primary": true, "period": "2021-2024", "outcome": "eligible_all_count", "exposure": "temp_high_10f", "rate_ratio": 1.018732708167866, "ci95_low": 0.999519040605026, "ci95_high": 1.038315718390744, "percent_change": 1.87327081678661, "coefficient_log_rate": 0.018559411851328, "se_hac7": 0.009714712665416, "two_sided_p": 0.05607610557301, "n_locality_days": 154866, "n_days": 1461, "n_zips": 106, "event_count": 58770, "zero_count_locality_days": 125369, "all_zero_zips_dropped": 6, "initial_locality_days": 163632, "n_parameters": 160, "iterations": 11, "pearson_dispersion": 1.364899092739742, "poisson_deviance": 88042.62266274178, "residual_daily_acf1": 0.043213564894354, "residual_daily_acf7": -0.043518764028669, "max_abs_score": 8.1901e-11, "standard_error_method": "Daily summed score Newey-West Bartlett HAC,7 calendar-day lags,n/(n-k) correction", "adjustment": "ZIP + year-month + day-of-week fixed effects; no arrest/population offset", "exposure_min": 2.93, "exposure_max": 11.78, "analysis_family": "general_eligible_arrest_records", "multiplicity_note": "Designated primary retrospective test; no multiplicity adjustment", "exposed_locality_days": null, "unexposed_locality_days": null, "p_holm_general_family": null }, { "model": "secondary_mean_10f", "status": "ok", "primary": false, "period": "2021-2024", "outcome": "eligible_all_count", "exposure": "temp_mean_10f", "rate_ratio": 1.014979510155143, "ci95_low": 0.988900193871435, "ci95_high": 1.041746591232547, "percent_change": 1.497951015514265, "coefficient_log_rate": 0.014868425250721, "se_hac7": 0.013281006240264, "two_sided_p": 0.262916015255962, "n_locality_days": 154866, "n_days": 1461, "n_zips": 106, "event_count": 58770, "zero_count_locality_days": 125369, "all_zero_zips_dropped": 6, "initial_locality_days": 163632, "n_parameters": 160, "iterations": 11, "pearson_dispersion": 1.364445745974814, "poisson_deviance": 88047.25981819499, "residual_daily_acf1": 0.043151267178224, "residual_daily_acf7": -0.04145743969913, "max_abs_score": 5.9012e-11, "standard_error_method": "Daily summed score Newey-West Bartlett HAC,7 calendar-day lags,n/(n-k) correction", "adjustment": "ZIP + year-month + day-of-week fixed effects; no arrest/population offset", "exposure_min": 2.51, "exposure_max": 10.32, "analysis_family": "general_eligible_arrest_records", "multiplicity_note": "Holm adjustment across five designated nonprimary general-arrest tests; CIs individually 95%", "exposed_locality_days": null, "unexposed_locality_days": null, "p_holm_general_family": 1.0 }, { "model": "secondary_low_10f", "status": "ok", "primary": false, "period": "2021-2024", "outcome": "eligible_all_count", "exposure": "temp_low_10f", "rate_ratio": 1.000082458092885, "ci95_low": 0.973475678874794, "ci95_high": 1.02741644674797, "percent_change": 0.008245809288532, "coefficient_log_rate": 8.2454693404e-05, "se_hac7": 0.013757850943961, "two_sided_p": 0.995218080698069, "n_locality_days": 154866, "n_days": 1461, "n_zips": 106, "event_count": 58770, "zero_count_locality_days": 125369, "all_zero_zips_dropped": 6, "initial_locality_days": 163632, "n_parameters": 160, "iterations": 11, "pearson_dispersion": 1.363535409067976, "poisson_deviance": 88049.3443735554, "residual_daily_acf1": 0.043299194965514, "residual_daily_acf7": -0.040272955992254, "max_abs_score": 5.5459e-11, "standard_error_method": "Daily summed score Newey-West Bartlett HAC,7 calendar-day lags,n/(n-k) correction", "adjustment": "ZIP + year-month + day-of-week fixed effects; no arrest/population offset", "exposure_min": 1.46, "exposure_max": 9.41, "analysis_family": "general_eligible_arrest_records", "multiplicity_note": "Holm adjustment across five designated nonprimary general-arrest tests; CIs individually 95%", "exposed_locality_days": null, "unexposed_locality_days": null, "p_holm_general_family": 1.0 }, { "model": "secondary_high_ge90", "status": "ok", "primary": false, "period": "2021-2024", "outcome": "eligible_all_count", "exposure": "high_ge90f", "rate_ratio": 0.970588157536945, "ci95_low": 0.910061859782929, "ci95_high": 1.035139931889531, "percent_change": -2.941184246305539, "coefficient_log_rate": -0.029853043263135, "se_hac7": 0.032852471393838, "two_sided_p": 0.363508463884569, "n_locality_days": 154866, "n_days": 1461, "n_zips": 106, "event_count": 58770, "zero_count_locality_days": 125369, "all_zero_zips_dropped": 6, "initial_locality_days": 163632, "n_parameters": 160, "iterations": 11, "pearson_dispersion": 1.363501846748666, "poisson_deviance": 88047.76820423489, "residual_daily_acf1": 0.043255599936109, "residual_daily_acf7": -0.040600116660748, "max_abs_score": 1.1043e-11, "standard_error_method": "Daily summed score Newey-West Bartlett HAC,7 calendar-day lags,n/(n-k) correction", "adjustment": "ZIP + year-month + day-of-week fixed effects; no arrest/population offset", "exposure_min": 0.0, "exposure_max": 1.0, "analysis_family": "general_eligible_arrest_records", "multiplicity_note": "Holm adjustment across five designated nonprimary general-arrest tests; CIs individually 95%", "exposed_locality_days": 6642.0, "unexposed_locality_days": 148224.0, "p_holm_general_family": 1.0 }, { "model": "secondary_heatwave_p90_3day", "status": "ok", "primary": false, "period": "2021-2024", "outcome": "eligible_all_count", "exposure": "heatwave_p90_3day", "rate_ratio": 0.993326788055445, "ci95_low": 0.89575071948954, "ci95_high": 1.101532029391876, "percent_change": -0.667321194455528, "coefficient_log_rate": -0.006695577378434, "se_hac7": 0.052754817439871, "two_sided_p": 0.899004677904939, "n_locality_days": 154866, "n_days": 1461, "n_zips": 106, "event_count": 58770, "zero_count_locality_days": 125369, "all_zero_zips_dropped": 6, "initial_locality_days": 163632, "n_parameters": 160, "iterations": 11, "pearson_dispersion": 1.363518390848089, "poisson_deviance": 88049.30350080505, "residual_daily_acf1": 0.043389282505302, "residual_daily_acf7": -0.040476067428452, "max_abs_score": 1.2254e-11, "standard_error_method": "Daily summed score Newey-West Bartlett HAC,7 calendar-day lags,n/(n-k) correction", "adjustment": "ZIP + year-month + day-of-week fixed effects; no arrest/population offset", "exposure_min": 0.0, "exposure_max": 1.0, "analysis_family": "general_eligible_arrest_records", "multiplicity_note": "Holm adjustment across five designated nonprimary general-arrest tests; CIs individually 95%", "exposed_locality_days": 2916.0, "unexposed_locality_days": 151950.0, "p_holm_general_family": 1.0 }, { "model": "secondary_high_lag1_10f", "status": "ok", "primary": false, "period": "2021-2024", "outcome": "eligible_all_count", "exposure": "high_lag1_10f", "rate_ratio": 1.009820084953779, "ci95_low": 0.990962714764984, "ci95_high": 1.029036298522994, "percent_change": 0.982008495377862, "coefficient_log_rate": 0.009772181276344, "se_hac7": 0.00961780452837, "two_sided_p": 0.309605033323344, "n_locality_days": 154866, "n_days": 1461, "n_zips": 106, "event_count": 58770, "zero_count_locality_days": 125369, "all_zero_zips_dropped": 6, "initial_locality_days": 163632, "n_parameters": 160, "iterations": 11, "pearson_dispersion": 1.364402341927134, "poisson_deviance": 88047.48560568063, "residual_daily_acf1": 0.042072477399367, "residual_daily_acf7": -0.04283155303105, "max_abs_score": 8.174e-11, "standard_error_method": "Daily summed score Newey-West Bartlett HAC,7 calendar-day lags,n/(n-k) correction", "adjustment": "ZIP + year-month + day-of-week fixed effects; no arrest/population offset", "exposure_min": 2.93, "exposure_max": 11.78, "analysis_family": "general_eligible_arrest_records", "multiplicity_note": "Holm adjustment across five designated nonprimary general-arrest tests; CIs individually 95%", "exposed_locality_days": null, "unexposed_locality_days": null, "p_holm_general_family": 1.0 } ], "hac_audit": [ { "model": "primary_high_10f", "outcome": "eligible_all_count", "hac_lag_days": 7, "analysis": "Independent replication", "coefficient_log_rate": 0.0185594118513277, "standard_error": 0.009714712665439126, "rate_ratio": 1.0187327081678659, "ci95_low": 0.9995190406049806, "ci95_high": 1.0383157183907907, "two_sided_p": 0.05607610557359064 }, { "model": "primary_high_10f", "outcome": "eligible_all_count", "hac_lag_days": 14, "analysis": "Post-hoc HAC bandwidth sensitivity", "coefficient_log_rate": 0.0185594118513277, "standard_error": 0.010047249578707394, "rate_ratio": 1.0187327081678659, "ci95_low": 0.9988678059492441, "ci95_high": 1.0389926720130664, "two_sided_p": 0.06471624983129597 }, { "model": "primary_high_10f", "outcome": "eligible_all_count", "hac_lag_days": 28, "analysis": "Post-hoc HAC bandwidth sensitivity", "coefficient_log_rate": 0.0185594118513277, "standard_error": 0.010212215229464172, "rate_ratio": 1.0187327081678659, "ci95_low": 0.9985448974889615, "ci95_high": 1.039328660434627, "two_sided_p": 0.0691599048580163 } ], "coverage": { "period": "2021-2024", "eligible_record_ids": 58770, "initial_zip_days": 163632, "fitted_zip_days": 154866, "calendar_days": 1461, "initial_zips": 112, "fitted_zips": 106, "zero_only_zips_dropped": [ "92132", "92134", "92135", "92140", "92155", "92182" ], "zero_count_fitted_zip_days": 125369, "all_source_ids_unique_date": 72496, "weather_missing_zip_days": 0, "weekend_eligible_per_day": 35.26315789473684, "weekday_eligible_per_day": 42.214765100671144, "weekend_vs_weekday_unadjusted_percent": -16.467241235043094 }, "multiplicity": { "primary_tests": 1, "nonprimary_tests": 5, "method": "Holm step-down", "family_members": [ "secondary_mean_10f", "secondary_low_10f", "secondary_high_ge90", "secondary_heatwave_p90_3day", "secondary_high_lag1_10f" ], "note": "New retrospective general-arrest family, separate from the earlier DV analysis. All five nonprimary tests disclosed; individual 95% CIs are not simultaneous. HAC14/28 checks are post-hoc audit sensitivities." }, "model_definition": "Poisson log mean; ZIP, year-month and weekday fixed effects; no population or total-arrest offset; daily-score Bartlett HAC7 with N/(N-K); normal 95% CIs", "eligibility": "Unique usable date and ZIP; exclusively ADULT subtype; no warrant subtype or detention/court command or area classification; matched weather", "heatwave_definition": "ZIP-specific 90th percentile of May-September high temperatures in available 2018-2024; at least three consecutive May-September days at/above threshold, all qualifying run days flagged; not an official alert", "warnings": [ "Counts are arrest-record proxies, not all crimes, victims, unique people, or calls for service.", "Arrest and incident timestamp semantics differ across source systems; offense timing is unverified.", "2025 export is incomplete and excluded from these models; 2018 is partial.", "ZIP representative-point modeled outdoor temperatures; fixed UTC-7 windows; measurement uncertainty is not in the CIs.", "Observational associations; geography/calendar controls do not eliminate confounding or establish causality.", "Descriptive temperature-bin and weekday rates are unadjusted; model estimates do not refit with interface filters." ], "yearly_eligible": [ { "year": 2018, "zip_days": 20608, "calendar_days": 184, "eligible_all_count": 9142, "core_count": 944, "broad_count": 1138, "coverage_note": "July-December only" }, { "year": 2019, "zip_days": 40880, "calendar_days": 365, "eligible_all_count": 18412, "core_count": 1880, "broad_count": 2203, "coverage_note": "Completeness unverified" }, { "year": 2020, "zip_days": 40992, "calendar_days": 366, "eligible_all_count": 15617, "core_count": 1789, "broad_count": 2127, "coverage_note": "Completeness unverified" }, { "year": 2021, "zip_days": 40880, "calendar_days": 365, "eligible_all_count": 15587, "core_count": 1794, "broad_count": 2126, "coverage_note": "Completeness unverified" }, { "year": 2022, "zip_days": 40880, "calendar_days": 365, "eligible_all_count": 14661, "core_count": 1634, "broad_count": 1958, "coverage_note": "Completeness unverified" }, { "year": 2023, "zip_days": 40880, "calendar_days": 365, "eligible_all_count": 14732, "core_count": 1659, "broad_count": 1942, "coverage_note": "Completeness unverified" }, { "year": 2024, "zip_days": 40992, "calendar_days": 366, "eligible_all_count": 13790, "core_count": 1550, "broad_count": 1799, "coverage_note": "Completeness unverified" }, { "year": 2025, "zip_days": 40880, "calendar_days": 365, "eligible_all_count": 7202, "core_count": 883, "broad_count": 999, "coverage_note": "INCOMPLETE EXPORT; descriptive only" } ], "weekday_2021_2024": [ { "weekday": 0, "calendar_days": 209, "eligible_all_count": 7999, "core_count": 889, "eligible_all_per_day": 38.27272727272727, "core_per_day": 4.253588516746412, "weekday_name": "Monday", "all_source_unique_date_ids": 10064.0, "all_source_unique_date_per_day": 48.15311004784689 }, { "weekday": 1, "calendar_days": 209, "eligible_all_count": 8358, "core_count": 803, "eligible_all_per_day": 39.99043062200957, "core_per_day": 3.842105263157895, "weekday_name": "Tuesday", "all_source_unique_date_ids": 10729.0, "all_source_unique_date_per_day": 51.334928229665074 }, { "weekday": 2, "calendar_days": 208, "eligible_all_count": 9382, "core_count": 819, "eligible_all_per_day": 45.10576923076923, "core_per_day": 3.9375, "weekday_name": "Wednesday", "all_source_unique_date_ids": 12004.0, "all_source_unique_date_per_day": 57.71153846153846 }, { "weekday": 3, "calendar_days": 208, "eligible_all_count": 9446, "core_count": 863, "eligible_all_per_day": 45.41346153846154, "core_per_day": 4.149038461538462, "weekday_name": "Thursday", "all_source_unique_date_ids": 12081.0, "all_source_unique_date_per_day": 58.08173076923077 }, { "weekday": 4, "calendar_days": 209, "eligible_all_count": 8845, "core_count": 927, "eligible_all_per_day": 42.32057416267943, "core_per_day": 4.435406698564593, "weekday_name": "Friday", "all_source_unique_date_ids": 10978.0, "all_source_unique_date_per_day": 52.526315789473685 }, { "weekday": 5, "calendar_days": 209, "eligible_all_count": 7559, "core_count": 1108, "eligible_all_per_day": 36.16746411483253, "core_per_day": 5.301435406698564, "weekday_name": "Saturday", "all_source_unique_date_ids": 8604.0, "all_source_unique_date_per_day": 41.16746411483253 }, { "weekday": 6, "calendar_days": 209, "eligible_all_count": 7181, "core_count": 1228, "eligible_all_per_day": 34.35885167464115, "core_per_day": 5.875598086124402, "weekday_name": "Sunday", "all_source_unique_date_ids": 8036.0, "all_source_unique_date_per_day": 38.44976076555024 } ], "temperature_bins_2021_2024": [ { "temperature_bin": "<60F", "zip_days": 25042, "eligible_all_count": 8249, "core_count": 974, "eligible_all_per_100_zip_days": 32.94065969171792 }, { "temperature_bin": "60-<70F", "zip_days": 56786, "eligible_all_count": 19239, "core_count": 2049, "eligible_all_per_100_zip_days": 33.87982953544888 }, { "temperature_bin": "70-<80F", "zip_days": 49230, "eligible_all_count": 17845, "core_count": 1983, "eligible_all_per_100_zip_days": 36.24822262847857 }, { "temperature_bin": "80-<90F", "zip_days": 25894, "eligible_all_count": 11243, "core_count": 1314, "eligible_all_per_100_zip_days": 43.41932494014058 }, { "temperature_bin": "90-<100F", "zip_days": 5883, "eligible_all_count": 2092, "core_count": 292, "eligible_all_per_100_zip_days": 35.560088390277066 }, { "temperature_bin": ">=100F", "zip_days": 797, "eligible_all_count": 102, "core_count": 25, "eligible_all_per_100_zip_days": 12.797992471769135 } ], "independent_validation": { "primary_coefficient_difference": 1.3877787807814457e-16, "primary_hac7_se_difference": 2.2865390136850294e-14, "independent_max_abs_score": 5.673461700439475e-12, "score_solution_converged": true, "all_models_converged": true, "holm_manual_difference": 0.0 }, "input_sha256": { "daily_zip_eligible_weather.csv": "db8535a17fbdca5075e47afc6d82a47af0641c07400c48320e9d10d2b37c1882", "daily_all_source.csv": "74251fff794ab624783435f3937004374a16498868b5bb827a14bc2efcb4d0c8", "model_heat.py": "45ed3b642723a29516ec828cdf33f6125053b147405a509cef9a002b7f89bbed" }, "script_sha256": "53087c86912b1eefad42ab6ac5a7bd47facedeb6fc428405146db4ac38b130c2" }